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• John Short

  

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  March 14, 2024 6:00 AM EDT

  For nearly a decade, the NFC South has been something Andrus Peat Jersey of a sneaky juggernaut. Dating back to the 2015 season, they've had three different clubs (, , and ) reach the Super Bowl and the other () go as far as the NFC Championship over that stretch. In that same period, the NFC South has seen division winners notch records well into the double digits. In fact, the NFC South winner has averaged 12.5 wins per season since 2015.That's likely to change in 2022. With just four weeks remaining in the regular season, each team within the NFC South is under .500. While none of these clubs have been hyper-competitive this season, they are all within two games of one another in the lo s column, which means there is hope for each team to po sibly make a late push and win it. I mean, someone has to win this division, right?Below, we'll detail the remaining path for each member of the NFC South, highlight the tiebreakers that exist coming out of Week 14, and ultimately make our prediction for how we see this ultimately shaking out.TeamRecordDivision recordOdds to win NFC South1. Buccaneers6-73-1-3002. Panthers5-83-1+3753. Falcons5-81-3+14004. Saints4-91-3+4000As you can see, Tampa Bay has a slim lead in this division race and is currently the betting favorite to finish the year as NFC South champions. It's worth pointing out that the Bucs currently own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the New Orleans Saints thanks to their season sweep and have a win over the Falcons, who they'll face again in the regular-season finale. Tampa Bay also has one more game remaining with the Panthers, who beat them in Week 7.If Carolina pulls off another win over the Bucs when they travel to Raymond James Stadium in Week 17, they'd own the head-to-head tiebreaker. If they don't, the next tiebreaker for the NFC South crown would be the better record within the division. That could come into play here, especially with the Bucs having games remaining against the Panthers and Falcons, along with Carolina and Atlanta splitting their season series already.According to , Tampa Bay currently has a 65% chance to win the division coming out of Week 14. Carolina has a 31% chance, Atlanta is at 4%, and New Orleans comes up the rear with a minute 0.7% chance of winning. WeekOpponentLocationWeek 15Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)Week 16State Farm Stadium (Glendale, AZ)Week 17Carolina PanthersRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)Week 18Atlanta FalconsMercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)The Buccaneers have the seventh-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, according to their opponents' combined win percentage. However, they are looking at their most difficult game remaining on the schedule this week when they host the Cincinnati Bengals, who have ripped off five straight wins and are looking to leap up in the AFC playoff standings. The Bengals are inside the top 10 in DVOA this season and boast a top-five offense in the NFL that could be difficult for Tampa Bay to Kevin White Jersey keep up with. If the Bucs drop this game, their chances of winning the division drop to 57% without even considering the other matchups within the division.In Week 16, they may have caught a break as suffered what is feared to be a torn ACL in Monday's lo s to the , so they'd likely be facing in that matchup. Then, the final stretch of the season could determine the fate of their season as Tampa Bay faces back-to-back division opponents in the Panthers and Falcons. If Carolina wins, they'd claim the head-to-head tiebreaker and if Atlanta beats them in Week 18, they'd fall to .500 against division opponents.However, if Tampa Bay goes 3-1 down this stretch, they'll be in a prime position to win the NFC South. Even if they go 2-2, but with those two wins coming against the Panthers and Falcons, they'd clinch the division.WeekOpponentLocationWeek 15Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)Week 16Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)Week 17Tampa Bay BuccaneersRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)Week 18New Orleans SaintsCaesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA)Carolina actually owns the easiest remaining schedule in the NFC South and the fifth easiest in the entire NFL. In Week 15, they may be facing a Steelers team that is without (concu sion) and could be starting either or Mitchell Aldrick Rosas Jersey Trubisky. With that QB uncertainty looming, the Panthers are a 2.5-point favorite over Pittsburgh.If they were to win that game and Tampa Bay drops their Week 15 matchup to the Bengals, they'd own a 45% chance of winning the NFC South with the Bucs odds dropping to 50%. Maybe the most difficult matchup left for Carolina is the Lions in Week 16. Detroit has been one of the hottest teams in the NFL as they look to crash the playoff party with a wild-card berth.While that matchup could certainly result in a lo s, so long as the Panthers stay within a game of the Bucs leading Daniel Sorensen Jersey into their Week 17 showdown, they'll have an opportunity to leapfrog them thanks to that win earlier this season. However, a win over the Bucs wouldn't automatically clinch them the division if Tampa Bay goes 2-1 in their remaining games. Under that circumstance, the Panthers would then enter a must-win game against the Saints in Week 18 that would secure them their first division title since 2015.WeekOpponentLocationWeek 15Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)Week 16Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)Week 17Tampa Bay BuccaneersRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)Week 18New Orleans SaintsCaesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA)Atlanta has an outside chance of getting back into this playoff picture and they'll look to make that push rookie quarterback out of the Week 14 bye. However, they'll need to notch a win this week against the Saints if they want to remain in contention and prime upon their 1-3 record against NFC South opponents. If they were to drop that game -- currently 4-point underdogs -- one scenario where they'd still make the playoffs is if they won out, saw the Bucs drop their remaining four games and the Panthers drop their next two but beat their remaining division opponents. That would bring Atlanta to an 8-9 record, which would put them a game over the Panthers.WeekOpponentLocationWeek 15Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)Week 16Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)Week 17Tampa Bay BuccaneersRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)Week 18New Orleans SaintsCaesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA)New Orleans simply needs a lot of help to reach the postseason at this point. Even if they won Ryan Ramczyk Jersey out and we touch nothing else within the division, they'd have just a 19% chance of winning the NFC South.On top of winning out, one scenario where they do reach the playoffs is if Tampa Bay goes 1-3 down the stretch with lo ses to the Bengals, Panthers, and Falcons. Then, the Panthers would need to go 2-2 with lo ses to the Steelers and Saints, and wins against the Lions and Bucs. Under that circumstance, even if the Falcons went 3-1 over the final month, but that one defeat comes this week by the Saints, New Orleans would reach the playoffs.So you're telling me there's a chance? As dull as it may sound, we have the Buccaneers winning this division, almost by default. Even if they go .500 over the final month, so long as they can defeat the Panthers at home in Week 17, that'll be enough for them to realistically clinch the NFC South for a second consecutive year. That said, getting the Panthers at +375 is good value at this point in the season as things could easily shift in their favor. Whoever comes out of this division, however, will in all likelihood just be a sacrificial lamb for whatever hot playoff squad enters their building (likely the ).